Thursday, April 28, 2011

China's Energy Use & Emissions To Peak Well Before 2050

Some good news about China's energy use coming out of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, relying on some assumptions that may or may not actually come to pass (or even be good for the environment defined broadly). According to the China's Energy and Carbon Emissions Outlook to 2050, contrary to the prevailing wisdom, China's energy use and carbon emissions will stop growing well before 2050, as market saturation for consumer products and in construction takes hold.

Somewhere by 2030-2035, the report says, road and rail construction, car ownership, consumer goods purchases will all peak. Depending on which scenario comes to pass, energy consumption begins to flatten by 2025, 2030, or 2033.

The carbon emissions in the most aggressive scenario peak at 9.7 billion metric tons in 2027 and fall back to 7 billion metric tons by 2050. Under the least aggressive scenario emissions peak at 12 billion tons by 2033 and fall back to 11 billion tons by 2050.

Source: TreeHugger
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