What Will China’s Next Energy Intensity Target Be? | ChinaFAQs

What Will China’s Next Energy Intensity Target Be? | ChinaFAQs

A number of Chinese and international news outlets reported Monday that China’s next energy intensity reduction target (2011-2015) is likely to be 17.3%. These articles quote a Deputy Director named Huang Li at the Chinese National Energy Administration. This does not appear to be an official announcement, but rather one official’s comments on likely policy direction. The same People’s Daily article that quotes Huang stating the 17.3% target for the next five year plan and 16.6% for the following plan (2016-2020), also quotes an official from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) as suggesting the next energy intensity target would be between 15 and 20%.

Energy intensity measures the amount of energy used per unit of GDP output. China’s target in the current five year plan, which ends at the end of 2010, was 20%. This target has proven difficult to meet, and China is currently in an all-out push to meet it. Policy and academic discussion for the last year or two has centered around what the next energy intensity target would be with most experts weighing in that it would have to be somewhat lower than the 20% target of the last five years. The reasoning for a lower target is that many of the “low hanging fruit,” the easy savings, have already been taken, so increasing efficiency will be more challenging moving forward. We have heard about advocates for numbers like 15 and 16%, and we do also know of those within Chinese policy circles that are advocating for somewhat higher numbers than 17.3%.